There has been no mention of reopening the closed firehouses or hiring additional EMTs. When you combine these facts with a rapidly increasing population, the math frankly does not look good for anyone expecting a timely response to their 911 calls.
Here is the very basic math:
As you can see in the math above, 1000 new police officers would not result a significant amount of new patrols on a neighborhood level. 1000 new officers divided by 98 commands (77 neighborhood Precincts, 12 transit districts, 9 housing ‘service areas’) equals 10.2 new officers per station. 10 officers divided by 3 shifts yields 3 additional officers per shift (or, one patrol car and a foot post).
2 additional patrols per stationhouse sounds good, but we haven’t factored in the retirement rate yet. Unfortunately, this is currently an unknown number.
What is known about the attrition rate doesn’t look good: One article (from 2013) states 3000 officers are set to retire. This is backed by a story from 2012. Former city councilman Peter Vallone stated at the time that “I think people should be extremely worried…”.
Assuming the old published numbers are correct, we’re going into the red and 1000 new officers won’t make up the difference.
“I think people should be extremely worried” – Peter Vallone
Current police commissioner Bratton wants to add 450 officers to an anti-terrorism team “…partly to counter the increasing domestic threat posed by ISIS sympathizers. “.
Obvious math: Half of the 1000 new officers would go to replace officers being transferred to this counter terrorism team. How will this yield any new, day to day first responder protections for when people dial 911?
Let’s look at the revised math:
After Bratton’s anti-terror take, we have 1.8 new officers per command. Factor in sick days, injuries, vacation, retirements, and the tally is probably closer to zero new patrols/officers per precinct – and that’s probably being optimistic.
DeBlasio’s zero funding for new officers, combined with the unknown attrition rate, sick days, injuries, and vacation, results in a staffing level that is well into the red. The only way to fix that is either with extreme overtime (NYPD is expected to spend $672 Billion on NYPD overtime this year) or decreased patrols. Mandatory overtime on an already stressful, life-threaten job will absolutely have a negative impact on the quality of work performed by these officers – which is already under question even on a good day.
While I don’t have the current data on retirement rates (because it is not publicly available – I looked quite a bit), the conclusion I’m ready to draw is this: Even if 1000 new officers are hired, they will not likely yield more patrols. Bratton’s mismanagement will make the situation worse, and DeBlasio’s ‘hire no new cops’ policy makes no sense. Less police patrols will result in increased response times to 911 calls. I welcome our elected officials to prove overwise.
As we have seen, some NYC neighborhoods are exploding in population growth – growth that will only increase in the coming years. As it stands now, these neighborhoods will receive no additional police patrols despite literally tens of thousands of new residents. These neighborhoods are actually losing significant police protection via a decreased ratio of officers to population. If you live in a rapidly growing neighborhood, you should be extremely concerned – if not outright livid at this situation.
NYC on a whole has a population of 8.5 Million people at the moment. This is up from 8.1 Million in 2000. (It’s worth noting that in 2004 the NYPD employed an estimated 40,000 officers). It is projected by some that by 2020 NYC may have up to 9 Million people living within city limits. The number is still higher when you consider tourist and commuters.
In neighborhoods like Greenpoint, LIC and Williamsburg, the significant new population increases combined with decreased police and fire protection will absolutely result in higher response times and likely preventable deaths.
Significant new population increases combined with decreased police and fire protection will absolutely result in higher response times and likely preventable deaths.
While our city council seem to love trumping this ‘1000 new police officers’ line as a win for the public, it is in fact a loss. Bratton’s desire to add 450 officers to an anti-terror team to protect against lunatics on the other side of the planet is questionable, and DeBlasio’s refusal to hire more officers while the NYPD runs up huge overtime tabs makes absolutely no fucking sense at all. Combined, the council, police commissioner and mayor are displaying a stunning level of stupidity and contempt for the safety of NYC citizens and the lives of first responders. And this is happening against the backdrop of explosive population growth, further increasing the risks
When you add in the already reduced fire department staffing across the city, the message our elected officials are sending is very clear: Pay your taxes (unless you’re a developer), and pray you never have to call 911, because help is not on the way.
The more things change, the more they stay the same… But hey, at least you get a cab to the hospital via Uber now?
Yes this website and much of our usual audience enjoy activities that are completely harmless yet “illegal” (trespassing into abandoned places) but unless firearms are going to be legalized in NYC, there needs to be someone to protect those who perhaps can’t or don’t know how to protect themselves. Besides, so far the media outlets are refusing to pick up this story, so who better than us rebels to expose the truth? – Control.
The latest news is that Mayor DeBlasio has flip-flopped, and authorized the hiring of up to 1300 new officers (As recently as June 5 he argued we need no new officers).
In theory, 1300 officers will yield roughly 4 officers per command. However, the extra 300 are already earmarked for anti-terror patrols. This brings us back to 1000 new available officers to spread across 98 commands on 3 shifts – the same math at the top of this article. Population is still exploding in growth, and no one is talking about the attrition rate at the NYPD – a number that is still officially concealed from the public. According to one recent article, “Det. Robert Thybulle of the 67th Precinct said that some 500-700 officers are headed for retirement in the next year, so the hiring spree is really not a huge gain.” . That would leave us with maybe 300-400 new officers, spread again, across 98 commands and 3 shifts – roughly one per command. Factor in sick days, vacation, etc… and the actual amount of new officers on patrol is right around zero.
In short, the news of 1300 new hires likely changes absolutely nothing on a neighborhood by neighborhood level. The only thing that has been proven is DeBlasio is a flip-flopper.